Posted by: Tom Ross | July 31, 2013

The New Normal

[Click on the title above to view on the CTE Central Blog website.]

The Georgetown Public Policy Institute at Georgetown University recently published a follow-up report on job growth and educational requirements in the next decade. The previous report came out in 2010 and was titled Help Wanted: Projections of Jobs and Education Demand Through 2018.

The authors step into this research cautiously, pointing out that the average growth rate of jobs per month is about 160,000 which is not enough “to absorb both the existing pool of employed and the flow of new entrants into the workforce. But,” they continue, “we have recovered just under 6.1 million of the 8.7 million jobs lost in the recession [of 2007]—though the jobs lost look nothing like the jobs we’ve gained.”

“The key survival tools for this new normal,” they conclude, “will be accurate and timely information on where the jobs are and which industries will continue to experience high growth.”

recovery_banner_2

The report is titled RECOVERY, and it predicts the state of the American economy by the year 2020: the kinds of jobs that will be created or need filling due to the loss of baby boomers to retirement, and the amount and nature of education and training these jobs will require.

Here are some of their findings (summarized in the Executive Summary):

  • 55 million new jobs will be created by 2020—24 million new jobs and 31 million new openings due to retiring workers.
  • 80 percent of jobs in healthcare, information technology, and government will require more than a high school diploma.

•        6 million jobs will require a graduate degree.

•        13 million jobs will require a baccalaureate degree.

•        7 million jobs will require an associate’s degree.

•        5 million jobs will require a postsecondary certificate.

•        10 million jobs will require some college credit.

  • 65 percent of the job openings will require at least some postsecondary education or training:
  • Four out of five of the fastest growing occupations — professional and technical healthcare, STEM, education, and community services — will require high levels of postsecondary education.
  • We will fall short by 5 million workers with postsecondaryeducation if the current rate continues.

The study also found that for the upcoming jobs, the cognitive skills most valued and in demand are in leadership, communication, analytics, and administration.

Finally, the report shows which occupations are growing or declining within each state and what level of education state residents will need get those jobs of the future (see the State Report below).

“The fiscal cliff, sequestration, debt ceiling, domestic fiscal and monetary policy decisions, and international shocks,” the report reminds us, “are just a few of the myriad of events that could possibly affect the outcome of projections analysis.” (Not to mention Sharknado.)

For access to the Executive Summary and the full reports—as well as the methodology they used–see the links below.

The Executive Summary

Full Report

The State Report

Methodology


Responses

  1. […] next issue for Millennials? Jobs. As seen in our last blog, the workforce requirements of the future are pretty […]

  2. Nearly every summer the influx of college graduates into the job market causes a bump in the unemployment rate and reawakens the debate regarding the value of college education. What is often overlooked in this discussion is that unemployment among recent college graduates has a strong seasonal component. New report from the Georgetown Public Policy Institute’s Center on Education and the Workforce: The Summer Surge: http://cew.georgetown.edu/summerunemployment/


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